Donald Trump The Chameleon

Donald Trump The Chameleon

April 27th, 2016 // 7:52 pm @

We seem to be moving towards a Trump vs. Clinton general election for the US presidency. The generally accepted view is that Trump is not a serious presidential option, and therefore Hilary Clinton should win the election easily. Even within the Republican Party many are worried not that Trump will loose but he will do significant damage to other Republicans standing for office.

I suspect Trump has a few surprises in store for us in the coming election, and the outcome may be closer than is at present expected by most people.

It is important to understand the underlying motivation of the two candidates, which will drive what they do between now and the general election.

Donald Trump has a deep inner need for attention and adoration; his entire life is built on this need, including his high profile business life, his TV shows and now his running for the presidency. He holds few if any deep convictions on how America should change and develop for the better, all that is important to him is that he is in the Oval office.

Hilary Clinton is more of a conviction politician, her life has been driven by a desire to change America in very specific ways, and the presidency is a tool to achieve those goals it is not a goal for its own sake.

These very different perspectives will drive how the election runs assuming it is a Clinton vs.’ Trump competition.

Hilary Clinton will stay on message and present thought through specific plans and policies for her presidency, these will reflect convictions she has held all her adult life, and she would struggle to move from them.

Being an establishment candidate when the electorate are seeking new leaders with new thinking will be a problem for her, as will her lack of charisma, and the distrust many Americans have for her, these are issues that she will struggle to overcome.

Donald Trump has said many outrageous things, denigrating whole swathes of the electorate including, Women, Mexicans, African Americans and others. It would seem to be impossible for him to get passed these statements and to build a coalition that could allow him to win the presidency.

But to dismiss Trump as an egotistical, braggadocios fool motivated only by an egotistical desire for attention is to underestimate the man.

Donald Trump is many things, and many of them are less than pleasant, but he is no fool. Several months ago he was seen as a reality TV host who would not survive the early primaries, and yet here is on the verge of the Republican Parties Nomination for President.

He has done this by taping into a desire for change, and a distrust of traditional politicians. He has not out spent his opposition; in fact the use of his personal fortune is to date very limited. He has understood the fears and desires of the right wing of the Republican Party and has been able to articulate these fears better than anyone else. He reflects and builds on people’s fears, and he is good at it. He cannot put forward solid thought through policies as he simply does not have any.

As we move beyond the primaries into the general election he will need to change and align himself with the wider general electorate. He is intellectually capable of understanding this and has started bringing in advisors who can help him craft a more presidential message.

The outrageous statements against specific groups of the electorate will I suspect stop. His bragging about his personal achievements will be toned down, and the personal insults thrown at his opponents will disappear.

Where Hilary Clinton’s message will contain detailed and practical policies, Donald Trump will keep repeating “Make America Great Again” and avoid any real policies promises beyond the vague promise that he can make everything great again.

The race for the presidency still has a long way to go, and Donald Trump will be a formidable campaigner.

We can only hope the American people do not entrust the nuclear launch codes to a man who clearly can not properly control his sun bed.

 

 


Category : Blog &Other Thoughts

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