No Deal Brexit is a Fantasy

No Deal Brexit is a Fantasy

June 9th, 2019 // 9:19 pm @

Political discussion is dominated by whether we go for a “No Deal Brexit” or not. However the idea of a “No Deal Brexit” is a fantasy. We need for our long term economic growth to do a trade deal with the EU, whether that is before we technically leave or afterwards the reality remains we will have to do a deal at some point.

We need a trade deal with the EU for simple economic reasons. The EU is the largest single market on earth, and 43% of what we export goes to the EU, and major international companies will not going to invest in the UK without us having easy access to the EU market.

If one accepts the need for a trade deal at some point, the question becomes can the present deal on offer be improved, either pre our exit or post our exit. Several MP’s running to be PM claim they can magically get a better deal through their great negotiation skills, this claim is probably inevitable as they run for high office, but I doubt even they believe it is possible.

The EU has been absolutely clear that the core deal on offer is not up for renegotiation, and the 27 members of the EU seem united on this issue. They have their own electorate’s reaction to consider and the risk of other countries leaving if the deal offered to the UK is too good. Therefore any change beyond possibly cosmetics in the deal on offer is not going to happen.

If we leave with no deal, we will suffer economically and that is largely agreed by most people, and the longer we wait to do a deal with the EU, the greater that pain will be.

A UK government going to the EU post Brexit seeking a trade deal are not going to get a better deal than the one already offered by the EU. To start with the EU will do what it did in the negotiations running up to the deal we have on offer and insist we pay the divorce bill we have agreed to before they will start any trade negotiations. If we are fortunate we will be offered a deal post exit similar to the one on offer now.

The reality that few people seem ready to accept is that the deal on offer is the cost of leaving the EU.

The core question is not Brexit with a deal or without one, or the date when we do it. The question we need to address as a country is are we prepared to pay that price to leave the EU?

Category : Other Thoughts &The Future

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